First, the world's economic growth is insufficient. The economic fluctuations of developed economies such as the United States and Europe have increased, the potential growth capacity of emerging economies has declined, commodity prices have fluctuated at low levels, and global economic growth expectations have become more pessimistic. Major international institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expressed concern about the world economic growth in 2017 and lowered their expectations several times.
The second is the weakening of the traditional growth model, the new growth engine is not yet strong, the smooth conversion of new and old kinetic energy is facing greater challenges, and the economic driving force is in a situation of "unconnected". At the same time, major international economies have entered an aging society to varying degrees, the population growth rate has slowed down, and the contribution of traditional labor to economic growth has declined.
Third, economic globalization has experienced ups and downs, the multilateral trading system has been hit, and financial risks have not yet been eliminated. According to the WTO report, from October 2015 to May 2016, the monthly average number of new trade restriction measures in the Group of Twenty (G20) economies reached the level since the WTO began monitoring in 2009.
Fourth, problems such as the excessive development of the virtual economy in developed countries, heavy social welfare burdens, and hollow industries are difficult to solve; some emerging economies and developing countries have a decline in potential growth and a single industrial structure. Transformation and upgrading are faced with internal institutional mechanisms and external demand environments. And other constraints.
Fifth, general elections in major countries will increase economic variables. The 2016 presidential elections in the United States and France and Germany will usher in general elections in 2017. As different leaders have different governance styles and strategies, important changes in the political field will have important impacts on the economic strategies, systems, and policies of relevant countries.
